How it works
Your refund is the difference between the federal income tax you paid during the year (mostly through paycheck withholding) and the tax you actually owe after credits. Refundable credits, like part of the child tax credit and the earned income credit, can produce a refund even if no tax was withheld.
This estimate uses the 2026 tax brackets, standard deduction and credit amounts the IRS published in Revenue Procedure 2025-32. It is for income you earn from January through December 2026 and report on the return you file in early 2027.
Your income minus pre-tax retirement and HSA contributions is your adjusted gross income. From that we subtract the larger of the standard deduction and your itemized deductions, then the deductions for qualified tips, overtime premium pay and age 65 or older that apply from 2025 through 2028. Tax is figured bracket by bracket on what is left, and credits come off the result.
Credits included are the child tax credit ($2,200 per child under 17, up to $1,700 of it refundable), the $500 credit for other dependents and the earned income credit. Capital gains and qualified dividends taxed at lower rates, self-employment tax, the alternative minimum tax and other credits are not included. The earned income credit has rules this estimate can't check, such as investment income under $12,200 and age limits for workers without children, so confirm eligibility on the IRS site.
To change what comes out of each paycheck next year, see your take-home pay in the paycheck calculator, then adjust your Form W-4 with your employer.
Formula
Refund = tax withheld + estimated payments − (income tax − nonrefundable credits − refundable credits)
Sources
- IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32: 2026 tax brackets, standard deduction, child tax credit and earned income credit
- IRS fact sheet FS-2025-03: deductions for tips, overtime and seniors (2025–2028)
- IRS Schedule 1-A (Form 1040): phase-out of the new deductions
- IRS Schedule 8812 (Form 1040): child tax credit phase-out and refundable portion
Questions people ask
When will I get my 2026 refund?
The IRS usually starts accepting returns in late January. Most e-filed returns with direct deposit are refunded within 21 days. By law, refunds that include the earned income credit or the refundable child tax credit can't be issued before mid-February.
Where do I find how much tax was withheld?
Box 2 of your W-2 shows federal income tax withheld for the year. Before you get your W-2, use the year-to-date federal withholding on your last pay stub of 2026.
Why is my refund smaller than last year?
Common reasons are a raise that moved more income into a higher bracket, a child aging out of the child tax credit at 17, less withholding after a W-4 change, or income from a second job or side work without withholding.
Does this include state tax?
No, this estimates your federal refund only. Each state has its own return and withholding.